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By Connor R. Walsh

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Extra resources for Airline Industry: Strategies, operations, safety

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The demand for airline services is highly sensitive to safety concerns. Therefore, I hypothesize that there should be a relation between airline crashes and the risk faced by shareholders. 3. Similar to airline crashes, the industry was forced to endure the consequences of the events from 9/11. I suggest that this event created a large amount of uncertainty as to the industries future cash flow stream. However, as time passes from 9/11 and in the absence of future terrorist attacks – particularly those using airliners, this uncertainty should diminish.

This relationship is left for subsequent work. From Table 2 Panel A, profits for two of the three carriers are related to S&P 500 returns, but none are related to CPI or crude oil log price changes. While the relation with the consumer price index is intuitive, the relation with crude oil price changes is not. Since fuel prices are the second largest cost to the airlines and since fuel prices are highly correlated with crude oil prices, intuition suggests that crude oil prices should directly impact profitability – although it may be mitigated by hedging activities.

More specifically, Survivorship bias has been an issue in the study of mutual fund performance in recent studies. Elton, Gruber and Blake (1996) as well as others, note that studying only surviving mutual funds introduces a positive bias into fund performance – the goal of which is generally to determine the effect on investors‘ wealth from the allocation of wealth to the funds. However, poorly performing funds tend to disappear from databases due to attrition or merging with other funds. Hence, to not consider the possibility that some of an investor‘s portfolio may have been allocated to the distressed fund is to overstate the return to investors.

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